UK Weather Forecast: Cold Snap and Potential Wintry Conditions Ahead

The UK is bracing for a period of mixed weather conditions, culminating in a cold snap towards the weekend. Following a spell of low-pressure dominance, a high-pressure system is expected to take hold, leading to colder temperatures and an increased risk of wintry hazards.

Early Week Conditions

The beginning of February will see mixed conditions across the UK. England and Wales can expect mostly dry weather with scattered sunny spells after low cloud and fog clear. However, Northern Ireland and Scotland will experience more unsettled weather, with coastal gales anticipated. A Yellow weather warning for rain has been issued for parts of Dumfries & Galloway.

Rain and strong winds are expected on Monday night and into Tuesday, initially affecting north western Wales and England before reaching eastern England by early evening. Southern areas will remain dry with sunny intervals and temperatures slightly above average. Tuesday night may bring wintry showers over higher ground in Scotland, with a risk of ice on untreated surfaces.

Impending Cold Snap

The Met Office has indicated a high chance of a dip in temperatures across the UK towards the weekend and into the following week. This is due to high pressure moving in, bringing easterly winds, low temperatures, and a greater risk of wintry conditions such as snow and ice.

High Pressure and Its Effects

High-pressure systems typically bring settled and dry conditions. While sometimes stratocumulus cloud can lead to extended periods without sunshine, suppressing daytime temperatures, high pressure often brings clear skies, resulting in cold nights, frost, and fog. On this occasion, the high pressure is expected to be centred over Scandinavia, with easterly winds on its southern flank bringing cold air from the continent into the UK.

Longer-Term Outlook

Looking further ahead, there is an increased risk of wintry showers, with possible sleet or snow falling more widely at times. Temperatures are likely to be a few degrees below average, with the wind making it feel even colder. Some hard frosts are also expected.

Regional Forecasts and Specific Concerns

An icy chill is expected to settle over Wales in the coming days, with the potential for wintry showers. Some weather models indicate snow early next week over North Wales and along Britain’s east coast. Sub-zero night-time temperatures are forecast from Wednesday, with parts of North Wales potentially struggling to rise above freezing during the day by the weekend.

Snow is notoriously difficult to predict more than a day or two in advance. However, some models currently align on the prospects for Monday morning, February 10, showing snow clouds moving up from the south east to affect North Wales and northwest England. Falls are more likely on hills than lower ground. At least one model indicates a further spell of snow the following day, though the eastern coasts of England and Scotland are more likely to be affected.

Lows of -1C are forecast widely overnight in North Wales, but the Met Office indicates it could feel closer to -3C. Sunny spells are expected between cloudier periods.

Comparison to Past Weather Events

While some outlets have mentioned a “Beast from the East” scenario, forecasters have discounted this comparison. The cold snap is expected to persist for up to a week from Wednesday evening.

Met Office Outlook

In its outlook for Wales from Wednesday to Friday, the Met Office said that high pressure would bring a generally dry end to the week. There will be some sunshine at times, but also cloudier periods. It will turn colder with widespread overnight frosts.

The Met Office expects the weather to come from the east, extending the cold period. “There’s even the possibility of some snow at times,” said the forecaster.